Kolkata, India — Asia is witnessing a new game of swords and shields, which is taking players to ocean depths as well as outer space. China and India have taken the lead in this, with Japan seriously contemplating deploying systems it has been developing. The focus is on anti-access strategies and nuclear deterrence.
The proliferation of anti-ballistic missile systems is making Asian countries rethink offensive paradigms. Almost all major regional and offshore players in Asia are now pursuing ballistic missile defense systems.
The United States is of course the leader in this game and has helped its chief allies, Japan and South Korea, mature in this area through technology partnerships. India has an active BMD program in collaboration with Israel and various missiles under this program have undergone successful tests in recent times.
Naturally, the appearance of ballistic missile shields along its periphery is a major cause of concern for China, since it degrades China’s key long-range offensive strike architecture in the form of legacy ballistic missile systems. Moreover, it gives Washington and its partners breathing space to counter Chinese adventurism. It also effectively diminishes the ability of Pakistan and North Korea to blackmail India and Japan respectively.
Understanding the need to rebalance the situation, China has now begun to develop a range of counters under its 863 Program, an advanced state technology development plan that focuses on new-generation land- and submarine-based cruise missiles, faster ballistic missiles with terminal guidance and multiple warheads, and space-based offensive systems.
Targeting is accomplished through the deployment of a homegrown satellite positioning system, synthetic aperture radar, electro-optical satellites and over-the-horizon radars. The systems could come in handy for targeting U.S. carrier groups at sea and defeating BMDs in a nuclear attack.
Pakistan too has developed its Babur cruise missile, which is a medium-range missile similar to China’s long-range CJ-10.
While there has been much commentary on China’s counter-space capabilities, it is likely that China is also looking at space to launch land attacks. It can be argued that its Shenlong Space Plane project may lead to an orbital bomber and its interest in formation-flying satellites and space stations could lead to the pre-positioning of nuclear warheads in space. Indeed, the concept could be similar to the former Soviet Union’s Polyus program of the late 1980s, devised as an asymmetric counter to former U.S. President Ronald Regan’s strategic defense initiative derided as the Star Wars program.
The development of swords and shields however cuts both ways. China is itself engaged in developing an antiballistic missile shield, banking on both Russian and indigenous systems.
It should be noted that China’s test of a direct ascent anti-satellite system in 2007 also indicated the ability to intercept re-entering warheads, since the technology for either effort is related. Obviously, this would be of concern to countries like India and Japan, who want to retain the option of punitive long-range strikes against China in the event of hostilities. India in particular would want to maintain a credible nuclear second-strike capability against China’s cities.
Although India has a no-first-use policy with regard to launching nuclear attacks, for a survivable nuclear deterrent it recently launched its first nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant, which is scheduled to be commissioned in 2012. When deployed, it will carry as its primary armaments 12 nuclear-capable K-15 submarine-launched ballistic missiles with a range of just 700 kilometers.
But purists in India and elsewhere have dismissed the weapon’s load as too short ranged to achieve strategic objectives. However, a 3,500-kilometer SLBM for the Arihant and larger derivatives seems to be on the anvil as well. However, the deterrence value of the submarine with its initial armaments cannot be dismissed outright.
Several critical targets in China and elsewhere are right on the shoreline. Some analysts believe that ballistic missiles with long flight times will increasingly run the risk of detection and may not make it past a multi-layered BMD system.
Instead, relatively short-ranged maneuverable ballistic missiles that can be fired at depressed trajectories and yet fly at hypersonic speeds will prove difficult to intercept and also retain the stealth advantage if the submarine is quiet enough. Missiles of this class – sometimes termed quasi-ballistic, as they do not follow a purely ballistic trajectory, include the Russian Iskander, the U.S. Army’s tactical missile system, of which a naval version is proposed, the Chinese Dong-Feng 15 and India’s K-15 ballistic missiles.
Such weapons make even more sense from a cost benefit point of view when deployed on hybrid air-independent propulsion submarines such as the Russian B-90 Sarov. It remains to be seen whether India will move in this direction.
India also has hypersonic systems in development like the Brahmos 2 cruise missile and the Defense Research and Development Organization’s lead hypersonic technology demonstrator vehicle program. In years to come the former may form the cornerstone of India’s anti-access strategy at sea, and the latter could give it the ability to strike global targets at short notice.
Long-range firepower has emerged as a priority and these are a few relevant technologies being developed for “new deterrence.”
The quiet man of Asia – at least as far as military development is concerned – is also looking seriously at new offensive paradigms to keep China at bay. One would note that Japan has the world’s greatest “breakout” capability, which refers to Japan’s dormant weapon programs that can be activated fairly quickly if required.
Japan’s Technical Research and Development Institute continues active research into stealth technology for both manned and unmanned systems, which is an indication of the direction Japan may be headed.
It is conceivable that in the next decade Japan may begin to deploy extreme stealth and long-range cruise missiles on air-independent propulsion submarines that can strike hardened targets in China and North Korea. Indeed it can even go nuclear since the availability of fissile material is not an issue given its Monju fast breeder reactor.
Also, Japan is a pioneer in space exploration and can match the technological moves of China to possibly “weaponize” space.
The buildup in the areas of BMDs and precision-guided strategic munitions and the modernization of nuclear forces resemble the “new triad” being pursued by the United States.
It could be argued that India and China, Asia’s two largest nations, are developing weapon systems that mirror similar pursuits by the United States. This is not surprising, as their growing economies enable them to become more ambitious in developing their military programs. This suggests it is time now to look beyond the Outer Space Treaty and negotiate a new one, taking into account the reality of the new triad.
By Saurav Jha
From http://www.upiasia.com/Security/2009/10/07/new_paradigms_of_deterrence_in_asia/1912/
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